inflation, Fed and June
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“It’s by now widely agreed, almost all over the world: If you leave monetary policy in political hands, you’ll get too much inflation,” Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, told ABC News.
What is clear is that the current 4.33% median Fed funds target rate remains well above the inflation trend. Even after the acceleration in consumer prices in June, the policy rate is roughly 1.4 percentage points above headline CPI’s one-year change – close to the biggest gap post-pandemic.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index (CPI), a popular inflation gauge, increased in June to 2.7% on an annual basis as prices rose for consumers.
With June's inflation reading coming in hotter than the month prior, the Fed is under renewed pressure to maintain its current target range for the federal funds rate. Analysts now see little chance of a rate cut in the near term. That means HELOC borrowers are unlikely to see significant rate drops anytime soon.
The inflation gauge the Federal Reserve relies on most to decide whether to raise or lower U.S. interest rates is likely to cement a decision by the central bank to stand pat at its next meeting at the end of July.
The Federal Reserve is an independent organization, meant to be insulated from politics, and the Supreme Court suggested this year that President Donald Trump would need a reason, or cause, to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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The report on wholesale inflation came a day after the Labor Department reported that consumer prices last month rose 2.7% from June 2024, the biggest year-over-year gain since February, as Trump’s sweeping tariffs pushed up the cost of everything from groceries to appliances.