CPI, June and inflation
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The Consumer Price Index in June rose 2.7% on an annual basis, a sign inflation around the U.S. is creeping up after declining earlier this year. The CPI was forecast to rise 2.7% last month, higher than last month's rate of 2.4%, according to economists polled by financial data firm FactSet.
Britain's annual rate of consumer price inflation rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll for the rate to remain unchanged, official figures showed on Wednesday.
Both BofA and Morgan Stanley forecast the central bank to reduce policy rates twice each in August and November this year, while Goldman Sachs expects sequential cuts from November through March 2026 to a 3% level. The UK's benchmark bank rate currently stands at 4.25%.
While pundits looked with their magnifying glasses for tariffs in consumer goods prices, it was in services, which are not tariffed, where inflation took off again.
The case for a U.S. interest rate cut remains unresolved as Federal Reserve officials head into their policy meeting later this month, with data showing fresh signs of higher inflation and President Donald Trump intensifying his demands for lower borrowing costs.
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Services inflation, especially rent and shelter inflation, continued to decline, offsetting rising core goods inflation that may be influenced by tariffs, Steve Hou, a quant researcher at Bloomberg, said in a Tuesday post on X.
CPI inflation rose faster than expected, aligning with forecasts for higher inflation in the coming months. Check out what investors need to know.
In June, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% on an annual basis, a sign inflation around the U.S. is creeping up after declining earlier this year.
Britain's annual rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to its highest in over a year at 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll for the rate to remain unchanged,
Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was unexpectedly hot, showing a 0.3% increase month-over-month and a 2.7% rise year-over-year. In response, markets fell from recent highs. This is likely due to investors reassessing the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.