Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The 2023 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice finds that that 2020’s shift away from cash and toward credit card payments has continued. Consumers continued to reach for credit cards at a higher rate in ...

Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow ...

Temporary layoffs accounted for essentially the entire increase in unemployment to its historically high rate in April 2020. Although the rate has come down since its peak, unemployment remains well ...

Workers with a college degree typically earn substantially more than workers with less education. This so-called college wage premium increased for several decades, but it has been flat to down in ...

In its fifth iteration, the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice data show that cash continues to be used extensively for small-value purchases - representing nearly half of all payments under $10 and 42 ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

The labor force participation (LFP) rate for prime-age workers surged from early 2021 through early 2023, especially for women. This helped reduce the large shortfall of available workers relative to ...

The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting ...